Verdict
NDA retains a majority (293 seats)
NDA 293
INDIA 233
272 to govern
0seats flipped
Map — projected winners
Loading the constituency map…
Each shape is one constituency, coloured by projected winner. While setting a rule's scope you can drag a box to select seats, or hold Alt and drag to deselect.
Swing
A uniform swing between NDA and INDIA, applied across every seat — each seat credited to its own strongest local contestant in the gaining bloc, not one fixed national party.
Poles
◀ toward NDAtoward INDIA ▶
2024 actual — no swing
Every seat moves by the same number of points.
▸ By state (36)
Andaman & Nicobar Islands
follows national (0.0)
Andhra Pradesh
follows national (0.0)
Arunachal Pradesh
follows national (0.0)
Assam
follows national (0.0)
Bihar
follows national (0.0)
Chandigarh
follows national (0.0)
Chhattisgarh
follows national (0.0)
Dadra & N.H. and Daman & Diu
follows national (0.0)
Delhi
follows national (0.0)
Goa
follows national (0.0)
Gujarat
follows national (0.0)
Haryana
follows national (0.0)
Himachal Pradesh
follows national (0.0)
Jammu & Kashmir
follows national (0.0)
Jharkhand
follows national (0.0)
Karnataka
follows national (0.0)
Keralam
follows national (0.0)
Ladakh
follows national (0.0)
Lakshadweep
follows national (0.0)
Madhya Pradesh
follows national (0.0)
Maharashtra
follows national (0.0)
Manipur
follows national (0.0)
Meghalaya
follows national (0.0)
Mizoram
follows national (0.0)
Nagaland
follows national (0.0)
Odisha
follows national (0.0)
Puducherry
follows national (0.0)
Punjab
follows national (0.0)
Rajasthan
follows national (0.0)
Sikkim
follows national (0.0)
Tamil Nadu
follows national (0.0)
Telangana
follows national (0.0)
Tripura
follows national (0.0)
Uttar Pradesh
follows national (0.0)
Uttarakhand
follows national (0.0)
West Bengal
follows national (0.0)
Alliances & pacts
INDIA 19 · NDA 15 · YSRCP · BAP · +6 more · Unaligned
Bloc composition
Every party sits in its expected bloc by default. Click a chip to move it — a regional party with no real alliance stays a bloc of one, shown as itself.
293
233
+703 minor parties — no baseline seat, under 2% of the vote
Pre-poll pacts
Model two or more parties fielding one shared candidate per seat — e.g. a seat-sharing alliance — with a chemistry slider for how well the vote actually transfers.
Projection table
Projection
Turnout 66.1%
PartySeatsVote %
NDABJP, TDP, JD(U), SHS, LJP(RV), JSP, JD(S), RLD, UPPL, AGP, HAM(S), AJSU, NCP, SKM, ADS, NDPP, NPP29342.3%
INDIAINC, SP, AITC, DMK, SHS(UBT), NCP(SP), CPI(M), RJD, AAP, JMM, IUML, CPI(ML)L, CPI, VCK, JKNC, RSP, KEC, RLP, MDMK23341.0%
OtherIND, AACP, AADMPRVTNP, AAPP, AAS, AASAP, AASPP, ABASP, ABCD(A), ABD, ABHASP, ABHKP, ABHM, ABHRTJNSVP, ABHSP, ABKMP, ABML(S), ABMP, ABMVMP, ABSHP, ABSPARTY, ABSTP, ABTP, ABUAJP, ACDP, ADJP, ADPT, ADRSP, AHFBK, AHIMSASP, AHNP, AIAM, AIBPSP, AIFB, AIJYMKG, AIMEIEM, AIMEP, AIMK, AINDKSJNTP, AINRS, AIPDP, AISF, AIUC, AIUDF, AIUUK, AIYDPMP, AJD, AJM, AJP, AJPI, AJPK, AJPR, AJPty, AKBAP, AKBHAD, AKBRPRVP, AKLVJYP, AKNDBHRJNP, AKNDBRTSMR, ALHP, ALPU, AMB, AMGRDMK, AMJNMTP, AMM, AMMKMNKZ, AMiP, ANC, ANCHDMCP, ANDC, ANRP, ANSP, AODRP, APDAL(KAM), APKAWZP, APKGNTRP, APKSP, APNEP, APNHQP, APNJBP, APRS, APTADMK, APoI, ARJP, ARP, ARPS, ASDC, ASGP, ASJP, ASMJTYP, ASSP, ASaP, ATBP, AVIRP, AVRMK, AWMIPCHDAP, AYSRCP, AZSP, AaSamP, AimPP, AlPP, AllJP, AnAP, Azad Party, BAAP, BAHUMP, BALP, BAP(R), BARESP, BAWPA, BBC, BBKD, BCYP, BDJS, BDPty, BDlP, BED, BGDRPP, BGVKP, BGanP, BHAGP, BHAJASP, BHAZS, BHJJP, BHJMP, BHLBP, BHMPP, BHMS, BHRASP, BHRBKP, BHRJAP, BHRJWNKP, BHRLVP, BHRS, BHRTASP, BHRTJDOP, BHRTJNTM, BHRTLKCHTP, BHRTPNCLP, BHRTPRJAIK, BHRTSP, BHRTSRVDHN, BHRTYLKVNP, BHUDRP, BHUNP, BHYUJEP, BIP, BJD, BJJP, BJKD, BJKVP, BJNJGD, BJNP, BJSAP, BJVA, BKLJP, BKP, BKPP, BKVP, BKrD, BLFP, BLIP, BLKSKTIP, BLNDBHRTP, BLRP, BLokSP, BMAP, BMF, BMJP, BMUP, BNARP, BNGLRNNP, BNGNBNRMS, BNJD, BNPA, BNRP, BOPF, BPKP, BPS, BPSJP, BRED, BRJ, BRKP(D), BRM, BRMNP, BRRTD, BRSBD, BRTYLKNYKP, BSCP, BSKRP, BSP(A), BSSSSP, BSaP, BTC, BTJP, BTJSP, BTMSP, BUJNBHRTP, BUP, BVA, BVD, BYKD, BYPP, BhAmAP, BhBSP, BhNP, CAPS, CCP, CHALP, CHNYUTP, CSBGP, CoAP, DABAP, DAMK, DBSP, DHBHP, DHRMSMJP, DIGVBHP, DJHP, DJP, DKD, DMDK, DMSK, DPAP, DPRMP, DS, DSPI, DSPVAD, DaP, DrAPP, EKSP, ESBD, GBLRPBP, GGP, GJRTLKTNTP, GNASURKP, GNDWDKP, GPI, GRBDMCTP, GRBKLYNP, GSD, GSNJP, GSSP, GaAP, HCHLJP, HFPP, HINDSMJP, HJP, HJPS, HMR, HMSP, HNDPPD, HNDSWRJD, HRJSP, HS, HSP, HSS, HSVP, HVD, IBP, ILP(AP), IMP, INDMP, INDPJC, INDPPLSADH, INGRP, INL, INLD, INSAF, INYJP, IPBP, IPGP, ISP, IUC, JAISMP, JAKNPF, JANKRPR, JASP, JASWP, JBNP, JCVIVP, JDKRP, JHNDCGP, JHP, JHUP, JIHNDNTLP, JJ, JJD, JJSP, JKAP, JKNPPB, JKP, JKPDP, JKPP, JKRP, JKiP, JMBP, JMM(U), JNJP, JNJWDIP, JNLKVKSP, JNSGNDWP, JNSHSK, JNSKTSMTP, JNSNKP, JNTADRBARP, JNTASP, JNTRAAWJP, JNTSMTP, JPC, JPJD, JRBP, JRJP, JRVP, JSDP, JSEP, JSKHP, JSKP, JSPVR, JSWBHVKP, JUSTIP, JYVDRBP, JaHP, JaRaP, JaSD, Janata Congress, JeSM, KAP, KCVP, KEC(M), KJD, KJP, KKJHS, KKMP, KMGRKSNP, KMSMP, KMSP, KNBHJSWP, KP, KPJD, KPPR, KPPU, KRJAP, KRUNDSVKRA, KRUP, KS, KSNVSWP, KTKD, Karnataka Rashtra Samithi, LBCP, LCPY, LGP, LJD, LJSPty, LKHAP, LKRJJNTP, LKSNP, LKSWRJP, LLRP, LOKJANP, LPRSTRP, LSD, LSEP, LSMP, LSNP, LSWP, MADP, MAHMMK, MAHP, MAIIJP, MANAK, MANBP, MARD, MBCOI, MBMP, MCPI, MEDP, MJLMSMJP, MKUP, MLCNG, MLD, MLPOIRF, MMKA, MNDB, MNDP, MNF, MNGSMJP, MNK, MOSP, MPC, MPJVP, MPOI, MSMDNP, MTP, MTRSP, MVA, ManKP, MwSP, NADLMMKLK, NAPt, NATJUP, NAUP, NBBHNRSVP, NBEP, NBHS, NBNGPLPP, NBPP, NDS, NETHNP, NGPP, NIDP, NINIK, NIP, NIUP, NJMP, NJNDL, NLP, NMSP, NNKP, NNRP, NOTA, NP, NPF, NPM, NRCP, NRPI, NRSP, NSBHP, NSCBRAP, NTK, NWLBRP, NWLP, NYP, NavaP, Navodayam Party, ODSHJP, PAP, PASIP, PBI, PBLBRP, PBM, PCHVP, PDS, PECP, PEOPRTCP, PEP, PGSP, PHCPP, PHJSP, PLTIJSTP, PMK, PMPT, PMSP, PMTDK, PNGDSP, PNJBNP, PPI, PPID, PPIS, PPOI, PPSP, PRCP, PRJP, PRJPP, PRJVLGUP, PRJVNIP, PRSHP, PRVPOI, PS, PSJP, PSPU, PSS, PUNP, PuPP, RACHEP, RAJUP, RASMARP, RASTSA, RATLJNTAP, RBS, RCMP, RDD, RGD, RGOP, RJ, RJANSWP, RJAVP, RJBP, RJBVP, RJKMP, RJKPS, RJP(E), RJSNP, RJSPS, RJSTHNRJP, RJUP, RJnJnP, RJnPty, RJsbhP, RKBP, RKSYPP, RLOKM, RLPI, RMBP, RMEP, RMGLMP, RNVP, RPC(S), RPI, RPI(A), RPI(S), RPIA, RPIB, RPIK, RPIS, RPPRINAT, RPWP, RRP, RRS, RSD, RSHSNSP, RSHTBHUP, RSHTMNVP, RSHTSMNYPP, RSMD, RSOSP, RSPS, RSSCMJP, RSSDP, RSTHNDEKD, RSTJLKPS, RSTRSMPRP, RSTRSNTP, RSTRSURKP, RSTWDIBHRT, RSUP, RSVP, RSWD, RTBHP, RTJAWP, RTJNMS, RTJSD, RTORP, RTPP, RTRYDVBHMP, RTSMJD, RUC, RVIP, RVLTGONP, RVP, RaCP, RaJPa, RaNP, RasLP, RtrJP, SAAFP, SABJANP, SACP, SACSP, SAD(M), SAJP, SAMAP, SAMO, SANBP, SANKISVP, SAP, SASPA, SBKP, SBM, SBNP, SBSP, SBSPSP, SDC, SDF, SDPI, SERSNMH, SJAP, SJPA, SJPI, SJSMP, SJVP, SKJLP, SLDP, SMARTIP, SMBSP, SMJDRP, SMJSKTP, SMJSNGP, SMJVKP, SMJWDLKPRS, SMKNK, SMKP, SMNKJP, SMSSMJP, SNHRABHRTP, SNYGWDIP, SP(I), SPAKP, SPIP, SPSTWDJAP, SRKRP, SRPP, SRPSP, SRSMJNP, SRVADID, SRVLKTSP, SRVRP, SSBD, SSD, SSF, SSS, STHSHKRVP, STWDRKSKP, SUCI, SUSP, SVPP, SVSAP, SWAJANPA, SWJP, SWNTRABYKT, SWP, SWSSP, SWTNKSP, SZPB, SaBP, SaPP, SaRaPa, SaSP, SamSP, SatBP, TAGRNP, TCPY, TJP, TK, TLGNARJYS, TLGUNGP, TLRDSMTP, TMC(M), TMK, TMMDK, TMNK, TMNP, TMTHK, TNRMPI, TPJRP, TPSP, TPSTP, TRP, TRPS, TSP, TTPty, UDP, UKKD, UMEDPI, UMK, UPJP, UPP, UPRP, URPI, US, UTRASMNTP, VBA, VINPA, VIP, VIPty, VKK, VKRMSP, VKVIP, VPI, VRA, VSIP, VSJNP, VSP, VTIP, VTIPP, VTRP, VTVTK, WAP, WPOI, YBS, YGATLSIP, YIPP, YKP, YSEP, YVP, YVTRP, aimpr, apnipp, bhmm, bhp, bmd, bns, cvgrp, grac, mimm, nafp, pms, raup, rpsn, ssrd, svjn710.1%
YSRCPYSRCP41.8%
VOTPPVOTPP10.1%
ZPMZPM10.1%
SADSAD10.3%
BAPBAP10.2%
AIMIMAIMIM10.2%
ASPKRASPKR10.1%
Total 543 / 543
Tightest seats(72)
Tightest projected seats (72)
Surat · Gujarat0.0pt
BJP 0.0%— 0.0%
Mumbai North West · Maharashtra0.0pt
SHS 47.4%SHS(UBT) 47.4%
Attingal · Keralam0.1pt
INC 33.3%CPI(M) 33.2%
Jaipur Rural · Rajasthan0.1pt
BJP 49.0%INC 48.8%
Jajpur · Odisha0.1pt
BJP 46.0%BJD 45.9%
Kanker · Chhattisgarh0.1pt
BJP 47.2%INC 47.1%
Hamirpur · Uttar Pradesh0.2pt
SP 44.0%BJP 43.8%
Farrukhabad · Uttar Pradesh0.3pt
BJP 47.2%SP 46.9%
Firozpur · Punjab0.3pt
INC 23.7%AAP 23.4%
Dhule · Maharashtra0.3pt
INC 47.9%BJP 47.6%
Bansgaon · Uttar Pradesh0.3pt
BJP 45.4%INC 45.0%
Mahbubnagar · Telangana0.4pt
BJP 41.7%INC 41.3%
Bishnupur · West Bengal0.4pt
BJP 44.9%AITC 44.6%
Salempur · Uttar Pradesh0.4pt
SP 44.2%BJP 43.8%
Dhaurahra · Uttar Pradesh0.4pt
SP 39.9%BJP 39.5%
Virudhunagar · Tamil Nadu0.4pt
INC 36.3%DMDK 35.9%
Arambagh · West Bengal0.4pt
AITC 45.7%BJP 45.3%
Beed · Maharashtra0.4pt
NCP(SP) 44.9%BJP 44.5%
Phulpur · Uttar Pradesh0.4pt
BJP 44.6%SP 44.2%
Chandigarh · Chandigarh0.5pt
INC 48.2%BJP 47.7%
Balurghat · West Bengal0.8pt
BJP 46.5%AITC 45.6%
Meerut · Uttar Pradesh0.9pt
BJP 46.2%SP 45.3%
Anandpur Sahib · Punjab1.0pt
AAP 29.1%INC 28.1%
Hatkanangale · Maharashtra1.0pt
SHS 40.1%SHS(UBT) 39.1%
Thirupathi · Andhra Pradesh1.1pt
YSRCP 45.7%BJP 44.7%
Purulia · West Bengal1.2pt
BJP 40.3%AITC 39.1%
Mavelikkara · Keralam1.2pt
INC 41.3%CPI 40.1%
Patiala · Punjab1.3pt
INC 26.5%AAP 25.3%
Saran · Bihar1.3pt
BJP 46.2%RJD 44.8%
Aligarh · Uttar Pradesh1.4pt
BJP 44.3%SP 42.9%
Aonla · Uttar Pradesh1.5pt
SP 45.2%BJP 43.8%
Araria · Bihar1.6pt
BJP 47.9%RJD 46.3%
Karimganj · Assam1.6pt
BJP 47.5%INC 45.9%
Jhunjhunu · Rajasthan1.6pt
INC 49.4%BJP 47.8%
Thiruvananthapuram · Keralam1.7pt
INC 37.2%BJP 35.5%
Amravati · Maharashtra1.7pt
INC 44.8%BJP 43.2%
Dharmapuri · Tamil Nadu1.7pt
DMK 34.7%PMK 33.0%
Sasaram · Bihar1.8pt
INC 46.8%BJP 45.0%
Mumbai North Central · Maharashtra1.8pt
INC 48.9%BJP 47.1%
Medinipur · West Bengal1.8pt
AITC 47.4%BJP 45.6%
Dumka · Jharkhand1.9pt
JMM 46.2%BJP 44.3%
Chandauli · Uttar Pradesh1.9pt
SP 42.5%BJP 40.6%
Sonipat · Haryana1.9pt
INC 48.8%BJP 46.9%
Ludhiana · Punjab2.0pt
INC 30.4%BJP 28.4%
Davanagere · Karnataka2.0pt
INC 48.0%BJP 46.0%
Alathur · Keralam2.0pt
CPI(M) 40.7%INC 38.6%
Gulbarga · Karnataka2.1pt
INC 49.8%BJP 47.7%
Kandhamal · Odisha2.1pt
BJP 41.8%BJD 39.7%
Siwan · Bihar2.2pt
JD(U) 38.7%IND 36.5%
Ahmednagar · Maharashtra2.2pt
NCP(SP) 47.1%BJP 45.0%
Banaskantha · Gujarat2.2pt
INC 48.8%BJP 46.6%
Bankura · West Bengal2.3pt
AITC 44.3%BJP 42.1%
Muzaffarnagar · Uttar Pradesh2.3pt
SP 43.6%BJP 41.4%
Barmer · Rajasthan2.4pt
INC 41.7%IND 39.4%
Kanpur · Uttar Pradesh2.4pt
BJP 49.9%INC 47.6%
Kurukshetra · Haryana2.4pt
BJP 45.0%AAP 42.5%
Coochbehar · West Bengal2.4pt
AITC 48.6%BJP 46.2%
Bangalore Central · Karnataka2.5pt
BJP 50.0%INC 47.6%
Hardoi · Uttar Pradesh2.5pt
BJP 44.3%SP 41.7%
Namakkal · Tamil Nadu2.5pt
DMK 40.3%ADMK 37.8%
…and 12 more
Baseline — 2024
Baseline — 2024
Turnout 66.1%
AllianceSeatsVote %
NDABJP, TDP, JD(U), SHS, LJP(RV), JSP, JD(S), RLD, UPPL, AGP, HAM(S), AJSU, NCP, SKM, ADS, NDPP, NPP29342.3%
INDIAINC, SP, AITC, DMK, SHS(UBT), NCP(SP), CPI(M), RJD, AAP, JMM, IUML, CPI(ML)L, CPI, VCK, JKNC, RSP, KEC, RLP, MDMK23341.0%
OtherIND, AACP, AADMPRVTNP, AAPP, AAS, AASAP, AASPP, ABASP, ABCD(A), ABD, ABHASP, ABHKP, ABHM, ABHRTJNSVP, ABHSP, ABKMP, ABML(S), ABMP, ABMVMP, ABSHP, ABSPARTY, ABSTP, ABTP, ABUAJP, ACDP, ADJP, ADPT, ADRSP, AHFBK, AHIMSASP, AHNP, AIAM, AIBPSP, AIFB, AIJYMKG, AIMEIEM, AIMEP, AIMK, AINDKSJNTP, AINRS, AIPDP, AISF, AIUC, AIUDF, AIUUK, AIYDPMP, AJD, AJM, AJP, AJPI, AJPK, AJPR, AJPty, AKBAP, AKBHAD, AKBRPRVP, AKLVJYP, AKNDBHRJNP, AKNDBRTSMR, ALHP, ALPU, AMB, AMGRDMK, AMJNMTP, AMM, AMMKMNKZ, AMiP, ANC, ANCHDMCP, ANDC, ANRP, ANSP, AODRP, APDAL(KAM), APKAWZP, APKGNTRP, APKSP, APNEP, APNHQP, APNJBP, APRS, APTADMK, APoI, ARJP, ARP, ARPS, ASDC, ASGP, ASJP, ASMJTYP, ASSP, ASaP, ATBP, AVIRP, AVRMK, AWMIPCHDAP, AYSRCP, AZSP, AaSamP, AimPP, AlPP, AllJP, AnAP, Azad Party, BAAP, BAHUMP, BALP, BAP(R), BARESP, BAWPA, BBC, BBKD, BCYP, BDJS, BDPty, BDlP, BED, BGDRPP, BGVKP, BGanP, BHAGP, BHAJASP, BHAZS, BHJJP, BHJMP, BHLBP, BHMPP, BHMS, BHRASP, BHRBKP, BHRJAP, BHRJWNKP, BHRLVP, BHRS, BHRTASP, BHRTJDOP, BHRTJNTM, BHRTLKCHTP, BHRTPNCLP, BHRTPRJAIK, BHRTSP, BHRTSRVDHN, BHRTYLKVNP, BHUDRP, BHUNP, BHYUJEP, BIP, BJD, BJJP, BJKD, BJKVP, BJNJGD, BJNP, BJSAP, BJVA, BKLJP, BKP, BKPP, BKVP, BKrD, BLFP, BLIP, BLKSKTIP, BLNDBHRTP, BLRP, BLokSP, BMAP, BMF, BMJP, BMUP, BNARP, BNGLRNNP, BNGNBNRMS, BNJD, BNPA, BNRP, BOPF, BPKP, BPS, BPSJP, BRED, BRJ, BRKP(D), BRM, BRMNP, BRRTD, BRSBD, BRTYLKNYKP, BSCP, BSKRP, BSP(A), BSSSSP, BSaP, BTC, BTJP, BTJSP, BTMSP, BUJNBHRTP, BUP, BVA, BVD, BYKD, BYPP, BhAmAP, BhBSP, BhNP, CAPS, CCP, CHALP, CHNYUTP, CSBGP, CoAP, DABAP, DAMK, DBSP, DHBHP, DHRMSMJP, DIGVBHP, DJHP, DJP, DKD, DMDK, DMSK, DPAP, DPRMP, DS, DSPI, DSPVAD, DaP, DrAPP, EKSP, ESBD, GBLRPBP, GGP, GJRTLKTNTP, GNASURKP, GNDWDKP, GPI, GRBDMCTP, GRBKLYNP, GSD, GSNJP, GSSP, GaAP, HCHLJP, HFPP, HINDSMJP, HJP, HJPS, HMR, HMSP, HNDPPD, HNDSWRJD, HRJSP, HS, HSP, HSS, HSVP, HVD, IBP, ILP(AP), IMP, INDMP, INDPJC, INDPPLSADH, INGRP, INL, INLD, INSAF, INYJP, IPBP, IPGP, ISP, IUC, JAISMP, JAKNPF, JANKRPR, JASP, JASWP, JBNP, JCVIVP, JDKRP, JHNDCGP, JHP, JHUP, JIHNDNTLP, JJ, JJD, JJSP, JKAP, JKNPPB, JKP, JKPDP, JKPP, JKRP, JKiP, JMBP, JMM(U), JNJP, JNJWDIP, JNLKVKSP, JNSGNDWP, JNSHSK, JNSKTSMTP, JNSNKP, JNTADRBARP, JNTASP, JNTRAAWJP, JNTSMTP, JPC, JPJD, JRBP, JRJP, JRVP, JSDP, JSEP, JSKHP, JSKP, JSPVR, JSWBHVKP, JUSTIP, JYVDRBP, JaHP, JaRaP, JaSD, Janata Congress, JeSM, KAP, KCVP, KEC(M), KJD, KJP, KKJHS, KKMP, KMGRKSNP, KMSMP, KMSP, KNBHJSWP, KP, KPJD, KPPR, KPPU, KRJAP, KRUNDSVKRA, KRUP, KS, KSNVSWP, KTKD, Karnataka Rashtra Samithi, LBCP, LCPY, LGP, LJD, LJSPty, LKHAP, LKRJJNTP, LKSNP, LKSWRJP, LLRP, LOKJANP, LPRSTRP, LSD, LSEP, LSMP, LSNP, LSWP, MADP, MAHMMK, MAHP, MAIIJP, MANAK, MANBP, MARD, MBCOI, MBMP, MCPI, MEDP, MJLMSMJP, MKUP, MLCNG, MLD, MLPOIRF, MMKA, MNDB, MNDP, MNF, MNGSMJP, MNK, MOSP, MPC, MPJVP, MPOI, MSMDNP, MTP, MTRSP, MVA, ManKP, MwSP, NADLMMKLK, NAPt, NATJUP, NAUP, NBBHNRSVP, NBEP, NBHS, NBNGPLPP, NBPP, NDS, NETHNP, NGPP, NIDP, NINIK, NIP, NIUP, NJMP, NJNDL, NLP, NMSP, NNKP, NNRP, NOTA, NP, NPF, NPM, NRCP, NRPI, NRSP, NSBHP, NSCBRAP, NTK, NWLBRP, NWLP, NYP, NavaP, Navodayam Party, ODSHJP, PAP, PASIP, PBI, PBLBRP, PBM, PCHVP, PDS, PECP, PEOPRTCP, PEP, PGSP, PHCPP, PHJSP, PLTIJSTP, PMK, PMPT, PMSP, PMTDK, PNGDSP, PNJBNP, PPI, PPID, PPIS, PPOI, PPSP, PRCP, PRJP, PRJPP, PRJVLGUP, PRJVNIP, PRSHP, PRVPOI, PS, PSJP, PSPU, PSS, PUNP, PuPP, RACHEP, RAJUP, RASMARP, RASTSA, RATLJNTAP, RBS, RCMP, RDD, RGD, RGOP, RJ, RJANSWP, RJAVP, RJBP, RJBVP, RJKMP, RJKPS, RJP(E), RJSNP, RJSPS, RJSTHNRJP, RJUP, RJnJnP, RJnPty, RJsbhP, RKBP, RKSYPP, RLOKM, RLPI, RMBP, RMEP, RMGLMP, RNVP, RPC(S), RPI, RPI(A), RPI(S), RPIA, RPIB, RPIK, RPIS, RPPRINAT, RPWP, RRP, RRS, RSD, RSHSNSP, RSHTBHUP, RSHTMNVP, RSHTSMNYPP, RSMD, RSOSP, RSPS, RSSCMJP, RSSDP, RSTHNDEKD, RSTJLKPS, RSTRSMPRP, RSTRSNTP, RSTRSURKP, RSTWDIBHRT, RSUP, RSVP, RSWD, RTBHP, RTJAWP, RTJNMS, RTJSD, RTORP, RTPP, RTRYDVBHMP, RTSMJD, RUC, RVIP, RVLTGONP, RVP, RaCP, RaJPa, RaNP, RasLP, RtrJP, SAAFP, SABJANP, SACP, SACSP, SAD(M), SAJP, SAMAP, SAMO, SANBP, SANKISVP, SAP, SASPA, SBKP, SBM, SBNP, SBSP, SBSPSP, SDC, SDF, SDPI, SERSNMH, SJAP, SJPA, SJPI, SJSMP, SJVP, SKJLP, SLDP, SMARTIP, SMBSP, SMJDRP, SMJSKTP, SMJSNGP, SMJVKP, SMJWDLKPRS, SMKNK, SMKP, SMNKJP, SMSSMJP, SNHRABHRTP, SNYGWDIP, SP(I), SPAKP, SPIP, SPSTWDJAP, SRKRP, SRPP, SRPSP, SRSMJNP, SRVADID, SRVLKTSP, SRVRP, SSBD, SSD, SSF, SSS, STHSHKRVP, STWDRKSKP, SUCI, SUSP, SVPP, SVSAP, SWAJANPA, SWJP, SWNTRABYKT, SWP, SWSSP, SWTNKSP, SZPB, SaBP, SaPP, SaRaPa, SaSP, SamSP, SatBP, TAGRNP, TCPY, TJP, TK, TLGNARJYS, TLGUNGP, TLRDSMTP, TMC(M), TMK, TMMDK, TMNK, TMNP, TMTHK, TNRMPI, TPJRP, TPSP, TPSTP, TRP, TRPS, TSP, TTPty, UDP, UKKD, UMEDPI, UMK, UPJP, UPP, UPRP, URPI, US, UTRASMNTP, VBA, VINPA, VIP, VIPty, VKK, VKRMSP, VKVIP, VPI, VRA, VSIP, VSJNP, VSP, VTIP, VTIPP, VTRP, VTVTK, WAP, WPOI, YBS, YGATLSIP, YIPP, YKP, YSEP, YVP, YVTRP, aimpr, apnipp, bhmm, bhp, bmd, bns, cvgrp, grac, mimm, nafp, pms, raup, rpsn, ssrd, svjn710.1%
YSRCPYSRCP41.8%
SADSAD10.3%
AIMIMAIMIM10.2%
BAPBAP10.2%
ASPKRASPKR10.1%
VOTPPVOTPP10.1%
ZPMZPM10.1%
BSPBSP02.2%
ADMKADMK01.4%
Method
Every seat above is assigned by a deterministic vote-share rule, never a probability model — this is a sandbox, not a forecast. A projection starts from each seat's own recorded baseline vote shares, then applies whatever transfers, new parties, turnout changes, pre-poll pacts and national/state swing you have set, in that order, and finally reads off the plurality winner (NOTA is never counted as a winner).
The national swing slider debits points from the trailing bloc's member parties pro-rata to their own share in each seat, and credits the leading bloc's strongest local member there — so a seat where a bloc member polled zero loses nothing from that member, and a swing never moves more points than a bloc actually holds. A pre-poll pact's "chemistry" setting controls how much of a withdrawing partner's vote actually transfers to the pact's nominee; a post-poll coalition is pure arithmetic over the resulting seat tally.
No confidence intervals, no Monte Carlo simulation, and no polling input of any kind — there is nothing here to calibrate such a distribution against, so none is invented. Read every number as "what would it take", not a prediction.
2024 actual — no swing