Verdict
NDA retains a majority (288 seats)
NDA 288
INDIA 112
202 to govern
0seats flipped
Map — projected winners
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Each shape is one constituency, coloured by projected winner. While setting a rule's scope you can drag a box to select seats, or hold Alt and drag to deselect.
Swing
A uniform swing between NDA and INDIA, applied across every seat — each seat credited to its own strongest local contestant in the gaining bloc, not one fixed national party.
Poles
◀ toward NDAtoward INDIA ▶
2022 actual — no swing
Every seat moves by the same number of points.
Alliances & pacts
NDA 5 · INDIA 2 · JDL · BSP
Bloc composition
Every party sits in its expected bloc by default. Click a chip to move it — a regional party with no real alliance stays a bloc of one, shown as itself.
288
112
+282 minor parties — no baseline seat, under 2% of the vote
Pre-poll pacts
Model two or more parties fielding one shared candidate per seat — e.g. a seat-sharing alliance — with a chemistry slider for how well the vote actually transfers.
Projection table
Projection
Turnout 60.7%
PartySeatsVote %
NDABJP, ADS, RLD, SBSP, NINSHAD28848.6%
INDIASP, INC11234.6%
JDLJDL20.2%
BSPBSP112.9%
Total 403 / 403
Tightest seats(80)
Tightest projected seats (80)
Kursi · Uttar Pradesh0.1pt
BJP 41.1%SP 41.1%
Dhampur · Uttar Pradesh0.1pt
BJP 39.9%SP 39.8%
Chandpur · Uttar Pradesh0.1pt
SP 40.3%BJP 40.2%
Ram Nagar · Uttar Pradesh0.1pt
SP 42.0%BJP 41.9%
Nakur · Uttar Pradesh0.1pt
BJP 38.5%SP 38.4%
Nehtaur · Uttar Pradesh0.1pt
BJP 39.0%RLD 38.9%
Bilaspur · Uttar Pradesh0.1pt
BJP 43.2%SP 43.0%
Isauli · Uttar Pradesh0.1pt
SP 34.3%BJP 34.2%
Baraut · Uttar Pradesh0.2pt
BJP 46.3%RLD 46.2%
Katra · Uttar Pradesh0.2pt
BJP 39.9%SP 39.7%
Moradabad · Uttar Pradesh0.2pt
BJP 46.1%SP 45.9%
Dibiyapur · Uttar Pradesh0.2pt
SP 40.3%BJP 40.1%
Shahganj · Uttar Pradesh0.3pt
NINSHAD 36.2%SP 35.9%
Jasrana · Uttar Pradesh0.3pt
SP 43.7%BJP 43.4%
Domariaganj · Uttar Pradesh0.4pt
SP 41.2%BJP 40.8%
Chhibramau · Uttar Pradesh0.4pt
BJP 44.3%SP 43.9%
Sultanpur · Uttar Pradesh0.5pt
BJP 42.2%SP 41.8%
Manikpur · Uttar Pradesh0.5pt
ADS 35.2%SP 34.7%
Sitapur · Uttar Pradesh0.5pt
BJP 42.7%SP 42.2%
Bijnor · Uttar Pradesh0.6pt
BJP 38.5%RLD 38.0%
Shrawasti · Uttar Pradesh0.6pt
BJP 39.0%SP 38.4%
Pharenda · Uttar Pradesh0.6pt
INC 40.3%BJP 39.7%
Mariahu · Uttar Pradesh0.6pt
ADS 39.3%SP 38.6%
Badlapur · Uttar Pradesh0.6pt
BJP 39.7%SP 39.1%
Bisauli · Uttar Pradesh0.7pt
SP 44.2%BJP 43.5%
Aurai · Uttar Pradesh0.7pt
BJP 41.7%SP 41.0%
Ghazipur · Uttar Pradesh0.8pt
SP 40.8%BJP 40.1%
Basti Sadar · Uttar Pradesh0.8pt
SP 39.8%BJP 39.0%
Kithore · Uttar Pradesh0.9pt
SP 42.2%BJP 41.3%
Itwa · Uttar Pradesh1.0pt
SP 38.5%BJP 37.5%
Salon · Uttar Pradesh1.1pt
BJP 43.8%SP 42.7%
Rampur · Uttar Pradesh1.1pt
BJP 97.0%SP 96.0%
Zaidpur · Uttar Pradesh1.1pt
SP 40.9%BJP 39.8%
Phulpur · Uttar Pradesh1.1pt
BJP 42.0%SP 40.9%
Kalpi · Uttar Pradesh1.2pt
SP 29.5%NINSHAD 28.3%
Baheri · Uttar Pradesh1.3pt
SP 46.7%BJP 45.4%
Bachhrawan · Uttar Pradesh1.3pt
SP 31.4%ADS 30.0%
Raniganj · Uttar Pradesh1.4pt
SP 40.0%BJP 38.6%
Faridpur · Uttar Pradesh1.4pt
BJP 45.2%SP 43.8%
Etawah · Uttar Pradesh1.6pt
BJP 40.0%SP 38.4%
Handia · Uttar Pradesh1.6pt
SP 39.4%NINSHAD 37.7%
Aliganj · Uttar Pradesh1.7pt
BJP 45.4%SP 43.8%
Sareni · Uttar Pradesh1.8pt
SP 30.5%BJP 28.8%
Bahraich · Uttar Pradesh1.8pt
BJP 46.5%SP 44.7%
Patiali · Uttar Pradesh1.8pt
SP 41.9%BJP 40.1%
Meja · Uttar Pradesh1.8pt
SP 42.1%BJP 40.3%
Tirwa · Uttar Pradesh1.9pt
BJP 44.5%SP 42.6%
Bhadohi · Uttar Pradesh2.0pt
SP 40.2%BJP 38.3%
Madhuban · Uttar Pradesh2.0pt
BJP 35.2%SP 33.3%
Koil · Uttar Pradesh2.0pt
BJP 42.8%SP 40.8%
Bindki · Uttar Pradesh2.0pt
ADS 41.0%SP 39.0%
Mohammadi · Uttar Pradesh2.1pt
BJP 42.8%SP 40.7%
Jalalabad · Uttar Pradesh2.1pt
BJP 46.0%SP 43.9%
Mehndawal · Uttar Pradesh2.1pt
NINSHAD 37.2%SP 35.1%
Jalesar · Uttar Pradesh2.2pt
BJP 45.1%SP 42.9%
Bhongaon · Uttar Pradesh2.2pt
BJP 45.2%SP 43.0%
Kannauj · Uttar Pradesh2.2pt
BJP 44.5%SP 42.3%
Bikapur · Uttar Pradesh2.3pt
BJP 44.3%SP 42.0%
Mungra Badshahpur · Uttar Pradesh2.4pt
SP 41.9%BJP 39.5%
Mahmudabad · Uttar Pradesh2.4pt
BJP 41.9%SP 39.5%
…and 20 more
Baseline — 2022
Baseline — 2022
Turnout 60.7%
AllianceSeatsVote %
NDABJP, ADS, RLD, SBSP, NINSHAD28848.6%
INDIASP, INC11234.6%
JDLJDL20.2%
BSPBSP112.9%
OtherAAAP, AACP, AADMPRVTNP, AAMJP, AAPP, ABD, ABHASP, ABVP, ADBP, ADPT, ADUP, AEP, AIFB, AIMF, AIMIM, AINHCP, AIPF, AJPI, AKBHAD, AKBJANP, AKSJP, ALHP, ALJSP, APDAL(KAM), APNBHRTSNT, APNJNTP, APoI, ARADD, ASP, ASPKR, ASaP, AYP, AZAD, AcnP, Adarsh Janta Party, Adarsh Samaj Party, AkBNP, Akhil Bharatiya Socialist Party, Akhil Bhartiya Lok Dal, AnAP, Asankhya Samaj Party, BAWPA, BDNP, BDPty, BEP, BGDRPP, BHAKAP, BHATARSP, BHJMP, BHLKSTP, BHMPP, BHNKP, BHRGDPS, BHRTAPNSMJ, BHRTDMTJP, BHRTPNCLP, BHRTSRVDHN, BHSAVP, BHUANDP, BJJP, BJKD, BJNP, BJSAP, BKP, BKPP, BKrD, BLokSP, BMJP, BMUP, BMVSP, BNRP, BPA, BRPI, BRSBD, BSCP, BSHP, BSKP, BSNPTY, BSRD, BSSPA, BSUSP, BTSDJP, BTSTP, BUNKD, BVBHVP, BVD, BaJD, BaSaP, BaVaP, Bahujan Maha Party, BhaRP, Bhartiya Drishtigochar Party, Bundelkhand Vikas Dal, CPI, CPI(ML)(L), CPM, DESP, DSBHP, GAPP, GASP, GBVP, GKP, HINDSMJP, HINUP, HJ, HND, HP, HSP, HuSP, INAPI, IND, INJSP, INL, IPBP, IUML, IVD, IWP, JAISMP, JANADIP, JANKP, JANKRPR, JAPL, JASP, JD(U), JJUI, JKiP, JMBP, JNABHNP, JNBRDP, JNDHRSKTP, JNLKVKSP, JNTARKSHKP, JRJP, JRPa, JSEP, JaRaP, JaSSP, Jansatta Party, KMBS, KPL, KSRSP, KiRP, LGP, LJD, LJP, LJP(RV), LKBNDHP, LOKJANP, LPOI, LPRSTRP, LPSP, LS, LSMP, LTJP, LTSP, Lok Dal, MADP, MAKDL, MANBP, MARD, MBCOI, MCPI, MIHISE, MKUP, MNDP, MNVP, MOP, MOSP, MeyP, NACP, NAP, NBEP, NCP, NDPF, NEP, NJANP, NKP, NOTA, NYAYPR, PBI, PECP, PGSP, PHSP, PMSP, PPID, PPS, PPSP, PSJP, RAJUP, RALOPA, RAPI, RASJGP, RASJM, RBP, RBS, RDEMFR, RJAVP, RJBVP, RKKD, RKRSKD, RKSP, RMEP, RMGP, RPD, RRP, RSMD, RSOSP, RSPS, RSTHNDSMJP, RSTJLKPS, RSTJNMN, RSTRVVP, RSUP, RSUPRP, RSVP, RTBGP, RTJSP, RTLJP, RTORP, RTSMJD, RTVP, RTYVMRD, RUC, RVLP, RVMP, RVyP, RaNP, RrSP, RshJP, RtrJP, SABHP, SABJANP, SACP, SAKP, SAKSP, SAMAP, SANVP, SASEPA, SATKP, SBSPSP, SDHIP, SDJSWP, SDPI, SDSP, SDU, SECINQP, SGUP, SHS, SHtP, SILP, SJAP, SMJANDP, SMJDRP, SMKP, SP(I), SRSMJNP, SRVRJYP, SRVSNTP, SSAD, SSD, SUCI, SURSAP, SVSAP, SWAJANPA, SaPP, SamVP, Sarvhara Vikas Party, SatBP, SwaBP, UPRP, VANCHITSAMAJ INSAAF PARTY, VIJAYBHA, VINPA, VIP, VIPty, VKSHELJNTP, VPI, WJP, YVP, rpsn, ssrd, svjn04.5%
Method
Every seat above is assigned by a deterministic vote-share rule, never a probability model — this is a sandbox, not a forecast. A projection starts from each seat's own recorded baseline vote shares, then applies whatever transfers, new parties, turnout changes, pre-poll pacts and national/state swing you have set, in that order, and finally reads off the plurality winner (NOTA is never counted as a winner).
The national swing slider debits points from the trailing bloc's member parties pro-rata to their own share in each seat, and credits the leading bloc's strongest local member there — so a seat where a bloc member polled zero loses nothing from that member, and a swing never moves more points than a bloc actually holds. A pre-poll pact's "chemistry" setting controls how much of a withdrawing partner's vote actually transfers to the pact's nominee; a post-poll coalition is pure arithmetic over the resulting seat tally.
No confidence intervals, no Monte Carlo simulation, and no polling input of any kind — there is nothing here to calibrate such a distribution against, so none is invented. Read every number as "what would it take", not a prediction.
2022 actual — no swing