Each shape is one constituency, coloured by projected winner. While setting a rule's scope you can drag a box to select seats, or hold Alt and drag to deselect.
Swing
A uniform swing between NDA and YSRCP — Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party, applied across every seat — each seat credited to its own strongest local contestant in the gaining bloc, not one fixed national party.
◀ toward NDAtoward YSRCP — Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party ▶
2024 actual — no swing
Every seat moves by the same number of points.
Alliances & pacts
NDA 3 · YSRCP
Bloc composition
Every party sits in its expected bloc by default. Click a chip to move it — a regional party with no real alliance stays a bloc of one, shown as itself.
164
+85 minor parties — no baseline seat, under 2% of the vote
Pre-poll pacts
Model two or more parties fielding one shared candidate per seat — e.g. a seat-sharing alliance — with a chemistry slider for how well the vote actually transfers.
Every seat above is assigned by a deterministic vote-share rule, never a probability model — this is a sandbox, not a forecast. A projection starts from each seat's own recorded baseline vote shares, then applies whatever transfers, new parties, turnout changes, pre-poll pacts and national/state swing you have set, in that order, and finally reads off the plurality winner (NOTA is never counted as a winner).
The national swing slider debits points from the trailing bloc's member parties pro-rata to their own share in each seat, and credits the leading bloc's strongest local member there — so a seat where a bloc member polled zero loses nothing from that member, and a swing never moves more points than a bloc actually holds. A pre-poll pact's "chemistry" setting controls how much of a withdrawing partner's vote actually transfers to the pact's nominee; a post-poll coalition is pure arithmetic over the resulting seat tally.
No confidence intervals, no Monte Carlo simulation, and no polling input of any kind — there is nothing here to calibrate such a distribution against, so none is invented. Read every number as "what would it take", not a prediction.